A cold front will drift into the northern portions of South Texas today and stall. There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms near and south of the cold front today and this evening, possibly into the overnight hours over the Rio Grande Plains. The better chance for severe weather will be over the Western Coastal Bend, the Southern Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains (in the yellow area in the first graphic provided below). Conditions are more marginal elsewhere, although the slight risk area could possibly be expanded later today.
A strong upper level disturbance will impact South Texas late Sunday and Sunday Night, providing another chance for mainly isolated severe weather (strong storms can be expected at times). The concern for this event will mainly be Sunday night and into early Monday morning.
A few storms on Saturday could also become strong, with winds 40 to 50 mph and small hail. An isolated severe storm could not be ruled out either.
South Texas Impacts:
Winds: Strong damaging winds possible (around 60 mph to 70 mph) in severe storms, and 40 to 55 mph in stronger storms.
Hail: Isolated large hail (1 inch or larger in diameter) in severe storms. Pea to dime-sized hail in stronger storms.
Rainfall: Generally an inch or less today and tonight, but isolated higher amounts likely under stronger storms through tonight. Locally heavy rainfall will also occur, although the primary concern will be large hail and damaging winds. The chances for flooding will increase through the weekend as scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms continue. By Monday morning 1-2 inch rainfall amounts will be common, with isolated amounts in excess of 4 inches (see last graphic showing forecast average rainfall amounts).